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Feb 19, 00:24
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@Evan_ss6 @ThinkingUSD Chumba already ate the bat soup to save his puts
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Feb 18, 23:37
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@Pivot922 @based16z 🔥
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Feb 14, 17:34
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My friend @chumbawamba22 is launching a Substack, which I have been encouraging him to do for quite a while now. He is a divergent and original thinker and the sheer richness of his thoughts demand a longer format. My own experience is that writing has a way of sharpening the
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Feb 12, 19:47
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Got stopped for a small loss, will try again lower or on decisive break above 5100.
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Batch analyzed (2 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 10, 14:18
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Been gradually getting long gold, in more modest size than before. Again and again, I am surprised and impressed by how quickly it recovers from blowoffs and deleveragings that would nuke any other asset. It feels like real buyers of size showed up to take advantage of the
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Feb 09, 17:51
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The always insightful @Evan_ss6 has countered saying that the next great companies are being formed and built, and the very best of them will succeed despite everything else. This is definitely true, and of course I deeply wish I had blasted into the Anthropic rounds. That said,
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Feb 09, 17:38
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We are in a phase of the most rapid change the world has ever seen, both technological and geopolitical. In this environment, the premium to liquidity increases significantly. In my opinion, almost all forms of privates, illiquid closed end funds (such as PE), or real estate does
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Feb 05, 21:25
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https://t.co/kyfY7E2EPx
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Feb 02, 15:40
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Thoughts on Warsh.
My framework is to focus on environmental constraints on actors, understand their psychology, and then put myself into their shoes to predict the path forward.
There have been many extreme views on both sides. I believe both the very dovish or hawkish views
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Jan 30, 18:32
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Taps the sign
https://t.co/OYELwS8UwL
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Jan 30, 18:31
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Can't believe they let me get out at the picotop once again. This nuke is absolute madness. I'm not interested in being a hero here, better to let a bottom form. All of the long-term macro drivers continue to be bullish, but it's going to need some time to heal from this. https://t.co/pT6el62aj8
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Jan 29, 15:55
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Big shout out to the legend @RiffRaffOz
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Jan 29, 15:53
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https://t.co/NG6LmiRN5N
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Jan 29, 15:30
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Trailing stops protected me and got me out, only gave back a couple %. What a run! $5600 target hit + insane GVZ + news failure on Iran tension + nonstop discussion of gold feels like a meaningful top to me. https://t.co/5OqMLQ0WkM
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Jan 27, 18:56
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Rebought silver $6-7 lower than my sale average. I will cut quickly if it makes new lows. Feels convex if gold makes new highs given everyone trying to short it. The underlying physical dynamics continue to be very strong. With the blowoff it should have nuked but didn't. We'll https://t.co/jlSSRIFCAv
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 26, 21:00
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What an insane day. Took profits in gold / silver / related trades and also some remaining US-listed speculative equities earlier. Feels like a good time to adopt a more defensive posture and see how things evolve from here. Continue to be bullish on the environment for gold / https://t.co/VyX6DVh2zd
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Jan 25, 16:56
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The Trump admin/Rs will be politically weakened by this, especially with 2A-supporting moderates/independents. They have already been bleeding in the polls, both on immigration and other issues. The exact circumstances of the shooting and resulting narrative potential are more https://t.co/cotrv0cXVs
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Batch analyzed (3 ideas in batch of 50)...
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Jan 23, 17:14
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Another good datapoint:
https://t.co/L5LOZr8aul
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Jan 23, 17:13
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My central case is we see an acceleration of run-it-hot moves into midterm election, and post-loss Trump goes on tilt and pivots further into foreign policy with increased aggression. These successive moves will impact faith in US-based assets, it's not clear exactly where the https://t.co/WtjGQm9oSC
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Jan 20, 14:34
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Haven't been posting much lately, been on a great run trading and also focused on some back end operational work. Continue to ride gold in size, and trading in and out of silver to capture good amounts of the upside while managing downside risk given the volatility.
The below is https://t.co/Fq5muAXfIj
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Jan 03, 17:27
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Quick and dirty thoughts on Venezuela.
1. 650-750k barrels/day that went to China will be entering world markets, possibly shipped up to US gulf coast for refining as refineries there are built to handle heavy sour grades. In addition, 200-300k barrels/day in immediate
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Dec 29, 00:45
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Silver, it's been real. Sold the rest around $80 when it became clear the reversal was happening. Lightened up on gold too, hoping to rebuy lower. If I need to rebuy higher, so be it. https://t.co/OMryJielwA
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Dec 26, 18:38
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For those who celebrate. If you enjoy heavy, dreamy, drone-y sounds, this is an incredible track. PA is starting to move into blow-off territory, I have TPed a good amount on the way up (silver only, fully long gold) and surfing with the rest. Monitoring closely.
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Dec 23, 15:44
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Looking into the new year, my central case is that we see a normalization back to more favorable conditions after a choppy few months.
Liquidity has been tight, meaning that repo plumbing was showing signs of stress, due to a shortage of bank reserves as the Fed's balance sheet https://t.co/9MUplmG2xa
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Dec 19, 14:14
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How can the altcoin game be fixed?
What the altcoin game offers is a combination of skill-based casino game + MMORPG social layer + lottery. This combination is unique and highly synergistic.
The skill-based element means there is a return for effort and analysis. This makes it
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Dec 17, 12:44
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If you consider what the 4 year crypto cycle actually is: there is no magical rule of nature stating price must go up and down on this fixed cadence. The initial catalyst was the halving, which was the original metronome, but clearly the 4 year cycle became something more than https://t.co/AtWZjcYw7D
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Dec 16, 14:59
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A major event in the new year will be a structural shift in the Dutch pension system, with broad implications for Eurozone yields and equity flows.
The Dutch pension system is one of the largest in the world at €1.6 trillion in assets. It will be going from a strictly
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Dec 16, 12:55
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Looking for new accounts to follow in areas outside of markets and investments, anyone have recommendations? Especially people who are experts or have a differentiated perspective, could be literally any topic. Thank you.
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Dec 15, 15:47
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Do crypto traders have an edge in equities?
The answer here is nuanced.
Crypto is pure in the sense that most coins trade solely on attention, narrative, price action, charts, and memetic consensus. It's the most vibes-based asset class.
Traders who have done well in crypto https://t.co/nEm7nK85k9
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Dec 12, 13:29
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Long gold and silver is a high risk/reward, sleep-at-night trade, that you can put on in great size. This gold move is just getting started, after digesting the August-October leg.
I have been long gold on-and-off all year starting in March, and sold it all publicly the day of https://t.co/OMryJidNH2
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Dec 10, 23:03
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Shoutout to the homie @leveraged_cat who does a lot of interesting work in small cap stocks. With IWM breaking out he is someone you should follow. https://t.co/foyBViBu4t
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Dec 10, 19:39
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To give more context, the Fed will buy T-bills (thus increasing asset side of balance sheet) in exchange for more bank reserves on the liability side. So it magically increases bank reserves.
Bank reserves are important because when they are tight, banks will be less willing to https://t.co/1H7RYUm22d https://t.co/QAglrPgqea
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Dec 10, 19:25
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Fed to do $40bn in RMPs over a month starting Dec 12. Guiding to similar levels for 3 months, then potentially reducing them, but see strong likelihood the market gets used to them and will force their hand.
Vindication of BAML and ISI who stuck their neck out calling for big https://t.co/kn4AlUndSL
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Dec 10, 14:47
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Because of the 4 year cycle, all crypto market participants are primed to view the market as either in a bull or bear phase.
What if, as a part of the market maturing, we are simply in an extended consolidation window where overhead supply is being absorbed?
I have not seen https://t.co/FHicGkbVko
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Dec 09, 15:26
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There hasn't been much discussion of another reconciliation bill recently, so this is incremental.
Trump is getting hammered on cost of living concerns. There are three directions he can take.
1. Biden Mode: Dig his head in the sand and make the case that the electorate is https://t.co/s19MxxXeEw
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Dec 08, 18:03
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The Trump Fed takeover being underpriced is my primary theme going into 2026 (hence my gold bet). This is a momentous shift: the bigger and more convex the catalyst, the more difficult it is for markets to price it in properly.
At the same time, we may be starting to see term https://t.co/0uSp4KDDUg https://t.co/68jTsdbeT7
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Dec 01, 18:07
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Gold and silver continue to be the most interesting to me here, given they have multiple ways to win, and would be the cleanest beneficiary of major themes like Trump potentially taking over the Fed next year. Hassett being nominated in Dec will bring this into greater focus for https://t.co/OMryJidNH2
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Nov 30, 12:43
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The one that gets fucked is CRCL since its overhead is much greater.
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Nov 30, 12:41
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The equity buffer on the Tether entity looks thin because all of the profits are being pulled out via dividend (look at second table below). If all of the profits had been retained in the equity then there would be an immense net equity buffer.
If the prices of gold or BTC were https://t.co/yn4du9FvzI https://t.co/PBDXmEUWuK
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Nov 29, 13:49
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Why did crypto underperform other assets in 2025?
1. BTC ownership was too concentrated. It never fully distributed out at lower prices. Then there was significant confluence of factors concentrating selling in 2025: heavy liquidity available for exiting large bags at the https://t.co/OHe3IZiuqi
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Nov 26, 14:01
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This is a great articulation of the state of the game. We are seeing rolling bubbles that rise and fall based on shifts in memetic consensus and liquidity conditions. Policymakers encourage the game but don't ever let it get too hot.
Thus the AI bubble may end up being more like https://t.co/iGhfPFJhYE
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